Business world cautiously hopeful about Turkish recovery in 2010

The Turkish business world is cautiously hopeful about 2010 thanks to improving economic indicators in recent months, seen as initial signs of recovery from the global crisis. Haluk Dincer, a member of the Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TUSIAD), said that he doesn't expect quick growth globally in 2010. "So high growth in Turkey isn't really in the cards," he added. Dincer said he was optimistic about the medium-term program for 2010, adding that Turkey would grow over 5 percent with strong dialogue between the government and the business world. He said the political climate is the chief risk to the economy, urging leaders to work hard to ensure political stability or the whole country would suffer. Dincer said both Turkey and the International Monetary Fund need a bilateral agreement, and expressed hope that one will be reached soon. Tanil Kucuk, chair of the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO), said industrial production in Turkey shrank 13.1 percent in the first 10 months of 2009, but grew 6.5 percent in October 2009 year-on-year. "This positive development has boosted our morale, but we shouldn't forget that industrial output hasn't gained stability yet," he said. He added that foreign exchange rates should at least be kept at the current level to help exports. He also said recovery would take longer than the 2001 crisis, as it is a global crisis, not just a domestic one. "Our aim from now on will be to stabilize the rise in production, and also ensure positive consumption and investment numbers," he said. "Success in these areas will also help bring down unemployment." In addition, the International Investment Association (YASED) said it doesn't expect a full recovery in international direct investments before 2011. The association forecasts direct capital inflow below $9 billion at the end of 2009, and a bit higher next year. Ibrahim Aybar, chair of the Automotive Distributors' Association (ODD), said nobody should expect a growth in the automotive market unless Turkey sees a rise in economic growth and per capita income. "We may even see a drop in the automotive and commercial vehicle market in 2010 over 2009 if measures to revive the domestic market aren't maintained," he said. Turgay Tanes, head of the Association of Real Estate Investment Companies (GYODER), said he forecasts a limited demand rise with a relative increase in investments next year. Turkey's ready-to-wear industry is another sector that expects positive developments in 2010.