London school of economics: "Turkey's influence in the mideast is rising"

Turkey's growing influence is likely to see it play a rising role in Middle East affairs during the Arab Spring, according to a new report released yesterday by the London School of Economics and Political Science, just days before Sunday's Turkish general elections. The report, called Turkey's Global Strategy, assesses the country's relations with neighboring states to show how it has become more assertive and influential in the region over the past decade as its economic, political and cultural power have all grown. The study from LSE IDEAS, the London School's center for international affairs, diplomacy and strategy, includes articles from eight experts in the field, written with the June 12 elections in mind. "Close ties with neighboring Syria have given Turkey a gateway into the Arab world," Christopher Phillips, a London-based analyst of Middle Eastern Affairs, writes in the report. But this doesn't necessarily mean that Turkey will act to save the regime of Bashar Assad from Syria's popular uprising, according to Phillips. Despite booming economic ties, the reality is that a regime change in Damascus may suit the current government in Ankara, according to Phillips. "Al-Assad needs [Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdogan far more than Erdogan needs al-Assad," he writes. "While Syria relies on Turkey economically and diplomatically, Turkey's use for Syria has diminished." The report also finds that Turkey has newfound confidence to act in the region, particularly in its relations with Iraq, Iran and Greece and in its strategic approach to the Caucasus and ties with the US. "Turkey's influence and reach are certain to be central to the future of the economic and political development of the region as the revolutions responsible for overthrowing governments make the difficult transition to constructing them," Nicholas Kitchen writes in his introduction to the report.