Syrian crisis, Turkish foreign policy dilemma dominate Istanbul debates

An international political forum held on Tuesday by the Center for Strategic Communication (STRATIM) saw intense debates on the escalating crisis between Turkey and Syria as well as the dilemma the former faces in how to best respond to mortar fire from its southern neighbor into its territory. "Although we took the right position in Syria," said the director of STRATIM, Suat Kiniklioglu, "we made a mistake when we employed such strong discourse [against President Bashar al-Assad], which did not leave us room for any maneuvering," speaking at the two-day forum in Istanbul. The forum hosted a large group of intellectuals, academics and policy makers both from Turkey and abroad and began with panel discussions on the Arab Spring and Turkey and the Middle East, which resulted in a focus on the developments in Syria. Kiniklioglu argued that "the essence of our Syria policy was right, but we misread the mood in the US and of our European allies." According to Kiniklioglu, "Nobody in Ankara would expect such a gathering around Assad for his defense," referring to the support of "Russia, Iran and other actors." Another panelist from the Center for American Progress (CAP) in Washington, D.C., Michael Werz said that "Turkey was frozen in the Cold War stalemate" until its transformation recently began, which he defined as "not being unique to Turkey as other similar countries such as Brazil and India went through the same processes." He stated that "this [protecting the status quo] did not work in a rapidly changing world." Joseph Bahout from a Paris-based think tank, Académie Diplomatique Internationale, directed attention to the three fault lines in the Middle East: Arab vs. non Arab, Sunni vs. Shiite and Sunni vs. Sunni (Salafi and the Muslim Brotherhood) and asked where Turkey stood between the Qatari and Saudi Arabian approaches in Syria. Nathalie Tocci from the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome said that "this government [the Justice and Development Party (AKP)] did not immediately jump on the military bandwagon in Syria, but waited for months." Arguing that "the Arab awakening killed Turkish romanticism about the region," Kiniklioglu went on to say that "Turkey's position creates adversaries. Turkish foreign policy is non-sectarian but it is rather difficult when some actors operate in fully sectarian terms." Professor Fuat Keyman of the Istanbul Policy Center commented that "Syria has become separate from the Arab Spring," and his fear is that "Assad might win as a result of this separation which is why we should link the Syrian crisis back to the Arab Spring." He also directed attention to the negligence of the international community on the humanitarian crisis in Syria and the refugee issue, stating that "the international community has a responsibility not to leave Turkey alone in the refugee issue." Voicing the overall concerns about Syria, Bahout said that "Syria is becoming a regional nightmare" while both Werz and Kiniklioglu pointed out that it is not possible to return to the "good old days."